In order to win the 2012
Presidential election, Mitt Romney needs to win Florida’s 29 electoral votes.
If Romney does not carry Florida, he must win all of the swing states (Ohio,
New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado)
in order to reach 270 electoral votes. With this knowledge in mind, the Romney
campaign needs to focus heavily on persuading the Florida electorate
specifically Independents, who make up 24% of the electorate and can easily
swing the election to the right or left,[1] and
Hispanics, who make up 22.5% of the population during the general election
cycle.[2]
Since Florida’s panhandle leans Republican, and south Florida leans Democratic,
central Florida, otherwise known as the I-4 Corridor
warrants the most attention from the Romney campaign because there is more room
for persuasion as no ideology holds a strong majority and Independent voters
will decide the election in nearly every county in the area.[3] Substantively, Mitt Romney
needs to continue to emphasize the economy, as Florida’s unemployment rate is
10% higher than the national rate, and the security of Medicare, since it is
the second most important issue to Florida voters in this election.[4] Additionally, the Romney
campaign needs to run a balanced campaign that simultaneously values his substantive
plans about the economy and Medicare, and his compassionate personality, which is
increasingly being revealed though anecdotes narrated by his various
surrogates. Mitt Romney will win Florida if he matches, or exceeds the ground
level enthusiasm and support President Obama has, increases his support with
Hispanics by targeting effectively, increases his support with Independents,
performs well in the debates by persuading voters that he is the candidate that
can fix the dreadful Florida economy, and avoids any detrimental gaffes that
would distract his campaign.
Entering
the general election cycle, Mitt Romney had 47 field offices in Florida, the
bulk of which were situated on the central west coast of Florida around Tampa
and St. Petersburg.[5]
The dense Romney presence on the central west coast is strategic because in
2008’s Presidential election, the margin between McCain and Obama in the
central west coast never exceeded more than 12 percentage points.[6] Exemplified by the 2000
election between George Bush and Al Gore, every vote counts in the volatile
swing state of Florida, so, grassroots efforts should not be underestimated in
Romney’s campaign. Political Scientist Donald Green says “research has shown that
face-to-face talk increases a voter's chances of turning out by 7 to 10
percent. If a campaign talks to a third of its hoped-for voters, it can expect
to see a 3 percent boost at the polls.”[7] Romney’s abundance of field offices in the I-4
Corridor covers ground that Romney was not able reach because of retail campaigning,
and frankly, a lack of time. Grassroots campaigning becomes important in a
region as diverse as the I-4 Corridor because community organizers and the
local Republican Party can tailor Romney’s message more effectively to a
smaller, more defined group of constituents than retail campaigning can.
The
Romney campaign has been neglecting small swing counties in the panhandle and
south Florida, but this may be to the campaigns detriment. Presumably, the
Romney campaign is not putting field offices in small swing counties because
they are confident that the density of field offices in the central west coast
to naturally spread into the South Florida and there is a conservative majority
in the panhandle.[8]
However, the Romney Campaign may be making the
wrong decision because as of the October 9th deadline to register voters,
Desoto County (located in the panhandle) has twice as many registered Democrats
than Republicans; potentially, the Romney campaign could be surrendering Desoto
County to President Barack Obama. However, on October 27th,
the day early voting began in Florida; Mitt Romney finally hosted a rally at
the most opportune time in the strongly conservative tip of the panhandle in
Pensacola County. Romney rallied the conservative and military base to create
excitement for voting by criticizing the President on his cuts to Navy ships.[9]
The
Romney campaign has maintained a consistent presence in Florida, holding
campaign events with Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Ann Romney, or a Romney surrogate
(oftentimes Romney’s sons) multiple times a week. Since the beginning of the
general election cycle (after both party conventions), the Romney campaign has held
30 events in
Florida.[10]
The counties with the most campaign
events held were Duval, Hillsborough, and Sarasota. Duval County was the only
county not in the I-4 Corridor that received a significant amount of attention.
The Romney campaign was strategic in holding many campaign events in Duval
because the county has one of the largest
electorates (539,659 registered voters) and the 108,483
swing voters will determine who will win the
county.[11] The aforementioned scenario is commonplace in
the 1-4 Corridor, which is why it is absolutely crucial for Mitt Romney to
aggressively campaign in this region of Florida. [12]
Ann
Romney plays a crucial part in campaigning for her husband by speaking at Women
for Mitt Rallies all around Florida, visiting the Women’s Cancer Center in
Tampa, and reading to children at local hospitals. Mrs. Romney even co-hosted
Good Morning America for a week, a role a Presidential candidate’s wife has
never filled before. Speaking at local fundraisers and rallies coupled with
national media attention Ann Romney is slowly but surely increasing her
likeability, which has jumped 12 points since April,[13]however she has not been
as successful in her concerted attempts to “humanize” her husband, who has had
a stagnant favorable rating of 48% since
September 3rd.[14]
Paul
Ryan has not held as many events in Florida as Mitt or Ann Romney, but his
mother, Betty Douglas has made up the difference by making appearances at local
field offices in Fort Lauderdale to canvass voters via phone. Mrs. Douglas has
also assumed the role of a Medicare poster child, as Congressman Ryan
frequently reassures voters that, “we will make sure that this board of bureaucrats will not
mess with my Mom’s healthcare or your mom’s healthcare […] It’s what my Mom
relies on.”[15]
As Medicare is still the number two issue in the election according to a sample
of Florida voters, Paul Ryan’s reassurance that Medicare is here to stay is not
a message that seems to resound with many Florida voters.[16] As the Mitt Romney’s
campaign gets deeper into the general campaign cycle, they seem to be
abandoning their Medicare talking points, since none of the television ads
aired since September 27th in Florida have mentioned it.[17]
The most
notable surrogates that have been campaigning for Mitt Romney in Florida are
Senators John McCain and Marco Rubio, and newly Republican congressional candidate
Allen West. What is important about the three aforementioned public figures is
their appeal. Senator John McCain can energize the strong conservative
Republican base and speak with credibility about foreign policy (an area where
Mitt Romney has not had the best success), while Senator Rubio can draw in
Hispanics by connecting with them in a way that Mitt Romney cannot seem to do,
and Representative Allen West can appeal to independents, as a man who has been
on both sides of the political aisle. Appropriately, Senator McCain campaigned
for Romney in the strongly Republican panhandle of Florida. Young and energetic Senator Rubio campaigned
with Craig Romney (the only Spanish speaking Romney son) at Florida
International University in Miami, which was entirely appropriate as Mitt
Romney needs desperately to appeal to Hispanics, especially in Miami-Dade
County. Emboldened after his first debate “win”, Mitt Romney was appropriately
introduced by Allen West, a Republican Party neophyte at a rally in Port Saint
Lucie, a county where Independents will decide the winner.[18] The Port Saint Lucie
rally drew Mitt Romney’s his largest crowd of 12,000 to date, indicating a
significant rise in enthusiasm of his supporters as a result of his first
debate performance.[19]
Substantively,
Mitt Romney’s campaign is primarily focused on the economy, which is important
in Florida because it is the number one issue for the state’s voters[20] and Florida’s unemployment
rate has consistently been above the national average in 2012.[21] In a Patchwork Nation
study of unemployment discussion in the swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and
Florida, Florida has seen “the hardest times in the recession and the recovery”
and the word “homeless” has occurred
twice as often as the other two states, and the housing market is still
burdened with many foreclosures.[22] Mindful of Florida’s
economic strife, the economy has been mentioned in all of the political ads and
speeches made by the Romney campaign. Borrowing a tagline from Ronald Reagan’s
1980 election, the Romney campaign’s main question to voters has been “Are you
better off than you were four years ago?” In Florida, this question is
resonating with voters because only 40% of likely voters responded with
confidence that they were indeed better off than they were four years ago.[23] After four and a half
hours of debating President Obama about domestic and foreign policy, Mitt
Romney is leading President Obama in Florida 50 to 46,[24] and 51-45 among
registered voters in the 1-4 Corridor.[25]
In regard to
targeting of specific groups of voters, the Romney campaign is aware of their
lack of Hispanic support, and need to appeal to Independent voters. Since the
convention, Mitt Romney has made a concerted effort to appeal to Hispanics by
participating in the Univision’s “Meet the Candidates” forum, airing ads in
Spanish, or with Spanish subtitles, hiring 13 full-time Latino outreach
campaign workers in Florida, and dispatching surrogates to address Hispanic
organizations around the state.[26] Romney’s efforts to woo
the Hispanic vote have proved to be successful as an October 14th poll ( 24 days before the election)
taken by Florida International University, Miami Herald, and El Nuevo Herald
report that President Obama only leads Mitt Romney among Hispanics in the state
by 7%.[27] However, when
Cuban-American voters are taken out of the equation, the lead for President
Obama grows as Romney’s Hispanic support drops down to 33%.[28] The Romney campaign is
certainly dependent upon the Cuban-American enthusiasm to increase Mitt
Romney’s Hispanic support, which is why Marco Rubio is a necessary surrogate in
this Presidential campaign.
In a Florida poll conducted with 400 Hispanics, half of them
reported to knowing an illegal immigrant, and all of them claimed that
immigration reform was the second most important issue in the 2012 presidential
election.[29]
Part of gaining the Hispanic vote is
discussing immigration reform, and Mitt Romney has outlined a plan for
immigration that has not been clearly articulated in Florida, only touched on
during the first debate. The lasting impression that many voters have of Mitt
Romney’s immigration reform has been his call for every illegal immigrant to
“self-deport” and his campaign has not done enough to discount the incendiary
comment and promote their true plans for immigration reform, which should be one of the main factors in the campaigns’ Hispanic
outreach.[30]
In attempts
to win Florida’s Independent vote, Mitt Romney has done what every candidate
does upon entering the general election cycle, move to the middle. Romney’s
ideological shift was best exemplified during the first debate when he
repeatedly emphasized that he would not cut taxes for the “very rich” or raise
taxes on the middle class, expand the Pell Grant program, keep some parts of
the Affordable Care Act, like covering people with preexisting conditions, and
actively seek a simple and efficient track to citizenship for illegal
immigrants. [31]
In straying from the staunchly conservative views Mitt Romney held in the
Republican primaries, he was able to appeal to single issue voters, swing
voters, and independents as his lead with likely independent voters grew to 48%,
leading President Obama by 5%.[32] To
increase Mitt Romney’s swing voter appeal, there is not much else he can do,
but continue to boast his bipartisan achievements as Governor of Massachusetts,
and present himself as a moderate.
Since the
end of the RNC, the Romney campaign has consistently been outspent by President
Obama in Florida, who has spent a total of 25 million in advertising with
virtually no contributions to advertising from Super-Pacs.[33] Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has spent 20
million dollars on advertising since the RNC, but this number is misleading
because Crossroads GPS, American Crossroads, Restore Our Future, Americans for
Prosperity, and Americans for Job Security have all joined to almost match Mitt
Romney’s campaign by spending a little over 15 million on ad spending
throughout the general election cycle. [34] The bulk of the
advertising in Florida has been justly focused on the I-4 Corridor and less on
other regions, like the panhandle, which has virtually been void of any
political advertising since both party conventions.[35] To emphasize the message
that Mitt Romney, the man who has spent his entire life in the private sector
as a business man can fix the economy, and is the best choice for President,
the Romney’s campaign needs an cannonade of ads during the last weeks of the
election that are targeted towards Hispanics and aired frequently in the I-4
Corridor.
Essentially, the Romney campaign had an image and credibility
problem entering the general election cycle, but from October forward (after
the first debate) Romney redefined his campaign by emphasizing his economic
ideas (the 5 point plan) and taking advantage of the momentum gained after the
debate. In the last few days of the election Mitt Romney needs to maintain a
consistent presence in Florida, as he has throughout the general campaign
season, but also spend time in Virginia and Ohio(the three swing states with
the most electoral votes), while sending surrogates to Nevada (where an
aggregation of polls indicate the
President and Mitt Romney are statistically tied).[36]
In Florida, Mitt Romney must divide his time equally between south Florida,
where the Hispanic population is heavily concentrated and in central Florida
targeting Sarasota and Hillsborough counties where the independent voters make
up about a fourth of the electorate.[37]
Mitt Romney’s campaign also must distance itself from Romney’s past “extreme”
conservative positions, stress that Mitt Romney is not the an out of touch
plutocrat that his opponents perceive him as, but a humble man who understand
the trials of the middle class, and lastly fight through the disinformation in
the media to relay a cohesive and strong message that the Romney –Ryan ticket will
truly be “America’s Comeback Team.” By efficiently
using every resource (ads, surrogates, campaign rallies, and grassroots
efforts) at the Romney campaigns’ disposal full force during the last few days
of the general election campaign, Mitt Romney will win Florida’s 29 electoral
votes which could likely deprive President Barack Obama of a second term in the
White House.
*Email maureenedobor@gmail.com for works cited
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