Historical Presidential Elections In Florida

In the past eight Presidential elections, the state of Florida has successfully voted for seven winning candidates to occupy the oval office; it seems as if Florida’s voters have a knack for knowing who the winning candidate will be. Of the seven candidates, three are Republicans and two are Democrats.  Modern history has shown Florida to be a predominantly Republican state, but, the 1996 election of Bill Clinton and the 2008 election of Barack Obama can be identified as outliers. The question that many pundits, pollsters, and journalists are contemplating is whether Florida is displaying a trend of Democratization or whether it will maintain its historically Republican stronghold. The Presidential elections in Florida since 1980 will serve as a resource and reference point to comprehensively understand how the 2012 election will be different from, or the same as previous elections in the state.
                In the 1980 election between Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican Ronald Reagan, the majority of Florida voters, 56%, voted for Reagan, 39% for Carter, and 6% for the third party candidate John Anderson.[1] Reagan won the majority vote and all 17 of the state’s electoral votes.[2]  Although Reagan won in Florida by a margin of 17%, this election was the most divided Presidential election in the state until 2008. The ideology in Florida in 1980 was geographically divided; the eastern section of the panhandle (Tallahassee to Jacksonville) stood the only Democratic stronghold in the state.  The most Democratic counties within that area were Lafayette and Dixie County, which were 56% and 63% in support of Carter respectively. [3] As an incumbent, Jimmy Carter did not have a great advantage because of the weak economy (Florida had a stagnant unemployment rate of 6.4%),[4] the American citizens that were being kept as hostages in Iran, and his democratic candidate, Senator Edward Kennedy who challenged Mr. Carter relentlessly[5]. The Conservative Resurgence, an aggregation of conservatives, religious fundamentalists, and political action committees that emerged in the 1970’s as a response to the liberalism of the 1960s played a pivotal role in the 1980 election because they effectively made the case that liberalism was at work to undermine the family, religious values, national security, and work ethic.[6] Taking into account the region of the United States that Florida is in, southern values (in modern history) have become synonymous with conservative values; therefore, by virtue of Florida’s geography, it was essentially inevitable that the conservative rejuvenation would effectively bleed into Florida.

In the 1984 election, the Conservative Resurgence took full effect in Florida; Ronald Reagan acquired all of the state’s electoral votes and was reelected by the electorate by a 30% margin. [7] Reagan’s Democratic opponent, Walter Mondale only managed to get 35% of Florida’s popular vote. [8] Gadsden County was the only county that voted for Mondale by more than 50%. The demographics of Gadsden County likely contributed to the Democratic majority because they changed dramatically from 1980 to 1984; switching from a white majority to a 60% black majority.[9] In 1984, Reagan was the emblem of the United States “return to prosperity,” even though the prosperity was not shared. Upper income Americans enjoyed tax cuts to stimulate investments, while lower income Americans (those making $12,500 or less) did not feel the booming economy. The economics of the 1984 election year explain the Democratic stronghold in Gadsden County because 46% of the population was earning less than $10,000 per year. [10]

1988’s Presidential election between Michael Dukakis and George H.W. Bush yielded uncannily similar results in Florida as the 1984 election. Bush received 61% of the popular vote (4% less than Reagan) and all of the state’s electoral votes[11]. Bush charmed voters in 1988 by saying “Read my lips- no new taxes,” and convincing the electorate that Dukakis was weak on crime and national defense in an era of tense relations with Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. [12] The margin between Bush in 1988 and Reagan in 1984 can be attributed to the miniscule, but small emergence of Independent voters in the state and the changing demographics of Florida, particularly the growth of the Hispanic electorate from 1% in 1984 to 12% in 1988.[13]

Fighting for reelection in 1992, George H.W. Bush faced Democratic candidate Bill Clinton and third party candidate Ross Perot. With more equal income distribution in Florida, and generally the same demographics otherwise, Florida should have been an easy win for Bush in 1992 as it was in 1988; however Bush marginally clenched the popular vote by a 2% margin.[14] With only 2% of independent voters in the 1988 election, what was most blindsiding in the 1992 was that 20% of Florida’s electorate voted for Ross Perot.[15]  Three areas in Florida than had not voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1980 made a powerful presence in the 1992 election; the eastern area of the panhandle from Tallahassee to the Palm Coast, southern Florida, from West Palm Beach to Miami, and the small surrounding areas of Tampa.[16]  The trend that has been most prevalent in Florida since 1980 was that income was positively correlated with the Republican candidate, and minority presence in a county seemed to indicate more support for the Democratic candidate. However, in the 1992 election, that trend seemed to be losing legitimacy because Dade and Jackson County were two of the prominent outliers. At the most southern tip of Florida, Dade County who voted 47% for Clinton has gotten progressively wealthier, with the income gap become narrower every election year.[17] Conversely, Jackson County, with almost half of its population making below $15,000, almost had a majority with Bush securing 46% of the county’s vote.[18]  The Democratic governor in 1992, Lawton Chiles also endorsed Clinton, which helped take away votes from Bush.  The most notable observation of the 1992 election was that under four years of the Bush administration, Florida’s unemployment rate when up from a relatively low 5.4% to a shocking 7.6% in November of the Presidential election year, and the electorate of Florida still voted to re-elected him (albeit, by a small margin).[19]

The election of 1996 was relatively the same in Florida when Republican Bob Dole challenged Democratic incumbent Bill Clinton. However, there was a stronger Democratic presence of about 10% more in favor of Clinton versus the previous election year, and the states support of Perot had dwindled from 20% to 9%, indicating that he had only a minor impact on the popular vote. [20]

Since 1980, there has not been an election as highly contested as the 2000 Presidential election between George Bush and Al Gore in Florida. Bush and Gore both received 49% of the popular vote; however, the winner would be determined by who could get all of the electoral votes in the “winner-take-all” system.[21] After a recount, and two U.S. Supreme Court decisions, Bush won all of Florida’s electoral votes and became President. Florida’s recount is indicative of the Democratization of Florida, after the 2000 election, the gap between the Republican and Democrat candidates began to dramatically shrink; four years later Bush would win against John Kerry by only 4% of the popular vote, [22] regardless of the swelling unemployment from 3.8% in November 2000 to 4.4% in November 2004. [23]

As the political ideology of Florida’s electorate began to change, Florida became increasingly more diverse; the Hispanic population grew 5% and the Asian population 2%, and those who categorized themselves as “other” grew 2%. [24] The 2008 election paralleled the Presidential election of 1996 when Bill Clinton won Florida for reelection. Republican John McCain challenged Democrat Barack Obama who won Florida by 50%, a larger margin than Clinton by 2%.[25] The most important county in the 2008 election, Hillsborough County (also one of the largest in Florida) voted for Bush by 53% which changed in 2008, voting for Obama by 53%.[26] The slight change in one of the biggest counties in Florida explains why both candidates are campaigning heavily in Hillsborough, specifically Tampa.

  Just as one’s family, distinct life experiences, religious beliefs (or lack thereof), and a number of other factors contribute to a specific political ideology, Florida’s basic demographics and the political leadership throughout the state is a critical indicator of how the citizens will vote. The economy has been a consistent issue in every election since 1980. However, the focus of the electorate on the economy naturally fluctuates depending on Florida’s domestic wellbeing (unemployment and underemployment rate, etc.) in relation to other national issues. In the current election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama Florida has become a frequent campaign stop for both candidates, the location of the Republican National Convention, and a state which houses popular political leaders who serve as surrogates for their respective parties. The aforementioned factors constitute Florida as a battleground state which can either vote to re-elect the Democratic candidate it voted for in 2008, indicating a significant change in ideology of the state, or further perpetuate the penchant for Republican candidates, and vote for Mitt Romney.

The most salient trend in Florida seems to a persistent swell in the percentage of minorities. In 1980 Florida had a minority population of 17%[27], in the latest data reported, 2011, the minority population in Florida is estimated to make up 42.6% of the entire population.[28]  As Florida grows more diverse, the state grows increasingly Democratic, as illustrated by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama’s Presidential elections. However, it is fallacious to posit that all minority groups and individual minorities vote Democratic. For example, there is a massive population of Cuban-Americans in south Florida and out of the total amount of Cubans in Florida today, 12% entered between 1980-1990; a period when south Florida voted for Republican Presidential candidates in three consecutive elections[29]. The aforementioned evidence of a strongly torn Hispanic vote is becoming less credible due to the latest Survey USA poll showing President Barack Obama leading Romney by 16 points among Cubans, and non-Cuban Hispanics 36 points.[30] 

Undisputed evidence does show that a strong minority emergence in Miami-Dade county seems to contribute to the amount of people registered to vote, as of July 2012, just over one million people are registered to vote, most of them are registered Democrats, which indicates a change in ideology relative to 1980, when Dade county was strongly Republican.[31] Another important county is Hillsborough County (the home of the Republican National Convention for good reason), which has 705,000 people registered, and Democrats lead Republicans by a narrow margin of 53,000.[32] Hillsborough County will be a significant county for either party to win because it is one of the biggest counties in Florida with the most registered voters. In total, Florida is home to 4,147,530 registered Republicans, 4,593,324 registered Democrats, and 2,742,607 voters registered with a minor party or no party (Independent voters)[33]. Independent voters are absolutely crucial in Florida; especially in counties like Volusia, St. Lucie, Seminole, and Putnam, where Independents make up more than a third of the electorate.[34]

In the past few years, a trend has emerged with Republican led state legislatures and their voter ID laws. Republican state leaders have become fearful of voter fraud (which evidence has shown is not a legitimate concern as there have only been 9 cases of “possible
 voter fraud” between 2000-2007) leading to more stringent ID requirements to vote and limited early voting options.[35] Florida has taken an alternative route to voter suppression by  an passing a  law which restricts voter registration by the League of Women Voters, Rock the Vote, and other groups by requiring “burdensome” requirements, and imposing fines for not applying said requirements correctly. [36]  On August, 28, 2012, the District Court for the Northern District of Florida ruled for a “permanent injunction” on the strict requirements for voter registration drives. [37]  With the aforementioned ruling, various voter registration groups will be able to register people to vote again, however, they have only about a month to do so before the election. The Florida Times-Union reports that in the months before the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections, “the 13-month period between July 1 and August 1 of election year showed an average increase in registered Democrats of 209,425 voters. Over the same time between 2011 to 2012, registered Democrats increased by only 11,365 voters”.[38] This means that a significantly less amount of the eligible Florida electorate will vote in the 2012 election. With a small margin dividing the number of registered Republicans and Democrats in the state, it is unclear how the roadblocks to voter registration will affect the vote in 2012.

Historically, it has been clear that Florida is an important swing state, where “a small shift in popular vote could swing a large bloc of electors”[39]. In this year’s Presidential election, 29 electoral votes are at stake versus 27 in 2008. In the final stages of the Presidential election, Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are logically spending substantial amounts of time in swing states, specifically Florida where a win will provide the candidate with a hefty lead in electoral votes.  With Republicans and Democrats aware of what is at stake, surrogates (from Florida) for each candidate have also been campaigning for their preferred candidate with fire in the belly. Former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush and newly elected Senator of Florida, Marco Rubio are the most notable surrogates for Mitt Romney in the state because Bush represents a more progressive Republican that will appeal to moderates and Independent voters while Rubio can energize the youth of the Republican Party. On the other side of the aisle, Democratic National Committee Chair and U.S. Representative, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and an unlikely former Republican Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist are important surrogates for President Barack Obama because Schultz can fire up the base while Crist appeals to Independents and moderates.

Furthermore, local, state, and national officials campaigning on behalf of candidates, specifically in a state as ideologically diverse as Florida can have a small, but significant effect of convincing the electorate; this was illustrated in the 1992 election when Governor of Florida, Lawton Chiles endorsed Clinton. Like most endorsers, Governor Chiles had “clout with a certain constituency” creating legitimacy for Clinton in Florida, just as Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama’s surrogates will and are doing in the current general election cycle.[40] Cinching endorsements of leaders in key Florida counties like Pinellas and Hillsborough (newly Democratic counties) will be an important factor in winning the whole state.

In Florida the consistent key issue in every Presidential election is the economy. However, Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential pick, Paul Ryan has brought Medicare into the limelight claiming his opponents cut Medicare by $716 billion dollars to fund the Affordable Care Act.[41] Even though Ryan’s claims have been debunked repeatedly,[42] Medicare still continues to be a major issue among Florida voters, second to the economy.[43]

Considering the past four Presidential elections in Florida where two Democratic and two Republican candidates carried the state, the outcome of the 2012 election is undoubtedly “up in the air.” Conclusively, in order for a candidate to win the ever divided state of Florida, they must appeal to Independents, minorities (emphasizing Hispanics), and lower income citizens, have convincing ideas about healthcare (specifically Medicare), and a clear message on how to continue progress in the economy.

*email maureenedobor@gmail.com for works cited